So how do you beat the populist far right? Judging by the joyous reaction to D66’s victory in last week’s Dutch elections, the progressive-liberal party – and in particular its infectiously upbeat young leader, Rob Jetten – have discovered the secret.
Although official results are not due until Friday, Jetten on Tuesday appointed a “scout” to sound out possible coalition partners after besting Geert Wilders’ anti-immigration Freedom party (PVV) by just 28,400 votes, out of more than 10m cast.
Both parties will have 26 seats in the new Dutch parliament: a stunning achievement for D66, which had just nine in the last one, and a humiliating setback for Wilders, whose far-right party won a shock 37 in the previous 2023 election.
If all goes according to plan, Jetten will become – after the month or six it generally takes to form a government in the Netherlands – the country’s youngest ever prime minister, at the head of a far more centrist, pro-EU government than the last one.
But while there are certainly lessons to be learned for liberals from D66 and Jetten’s remarkable performance, they are far from universally applicable. And it would be very wrong to assume that the Dutch far right has been defeated.
Optimism and a big tent
Let’s see the glass as half full, though, and begin with what worked. Jetten was “the anti-Wilders”, Léonie de Jonge, a far-right expert at the University of Tübingen, told me, with a message voters hailed as “positive, calm and constructive”.
Sarah de Lange of the University of Leiden agreed. D66 had been boosted by a “hopeful, confident, optimistic, can-do campaign” whose slogan was het kan wél – essentially a Dutch version of Barack Obama’s celebrated “Yes, we can”.
Contrasted with the negativity of pretty much everyone else on the ballot, that really appealed. Simon van Teutem said Jetten sold hope but also “progressive patriotism”, and was “not afraid to take off the gloves” to confront the far right directly.
Van Teutem also highlighted a point made by several commentators: rather than attacking fellow moderates on the relatively few policies on which they really differ, Jetten pitched a big tent in which voters from both left and right felt comfortable.
Progressives fared badly
So far, so good. You’re a progressive party facing off against far-right populists? Find yourself a fit, youthful leader with a big smile who oozes optimism and can-do spirit, and is prepared to stress policy overlaps, rather than differences, with potential allies.
Is that enough? Unfortunately, probably not. Several intertwined specifics helped propel Jetten to his upset win. First, Dutch voters were emerging from almost a year of coalition talks, swiftly followed by another of near-total governmental dysfunction.
The four-party, rightwing, PVV-led coalition formed after Wilders’ 2023 landslide was marked by vicious infighting and accomplished virtually nothing before he torpedoed it after just 11 months over its refusal to endorse his draconian immigration plans.
Many voters were, unsurprisingly, peeved: all four parties in the outgoing coalition were punished: the PVV lost a third of its MPs, while New Social Contract (NSC) – somewhat ironically founded to promote good governance – went from 20 to zero.
Second, the Netherlands’ highly proportional electoral system, in which 0.67% of the vote equates to one MP, encourages that high degree of volatility – and fragmentation. Fifteen parties made it into parliament, and D66 won with barely 17% of the vote.
Third, the other progressives fared badly. The GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA) alliance led by the former European Commission vice-president, Frans Timmermans, shed five of the 25 seats it won last time to finish fourth – with many votes going to D66.
Fourth, D66 didn’t play the progressive card anyway say political scientists Stijn van Kessel and Andrej Zaslove. The party prioritised a tougher stance on migration over issues such as the climate crisis, LGBTQ+ rights and EU integration.
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And finally, that bit about seeing off far-right parties? Well, fragmentation affected them too. The lost PVV votes mainly went to the conspiratorial Forum for Democracy (FvD, which went from three seats to seven), and marginally milder JA21 (one MP to nine).
So overall, the far right did very well. “This is absolutely not peak populism,” de Jonge told me. “As a bloc, the far right gained a seat. Even Wilders didn’t blow it: the PVV’s score was its second highest ever. And now far-right ideas dominate Dutch politics.”
Jetten’s coalition challenge
So where does this all leave Jetten? To secure a majority in the 150-member parliament, he needs a coalition assembling 76 seats. The most likely is a four-way “grand” alliance spanning the political spectrum – but it will be hard to negotiate.
Together, D66, the liberal-conservative VVD, GL/PvdA and the centre-right CDA (who, underlining voters’ frustration with governmental chaos, surged from five seats to 18 on the promise of a more “decent” and “responsible” politics) would have 86 MPs.
Unfortunately, the VVD – which under its previous leader, the former prime minister Mark Rutte, often governed with more progressive parties – has said it will not go into coalition with the centre-left GL/PvdA, preferring instead a rightwing partner.
The only realistic option for that would be JA21 – whose ideology is diametrically opposed to D66 on issues such as minority rights and climate change. Plus, a four-party formation with JA21 would fall one short of a parliamentary majority.
Long, hard coalition talks await (in 2021-22, they took 299 days). Meanwhile, Geert Wilders will return to opposition, where, with no consensus needed, he is far more comfortable, to continue dominating Dutch debate – and dragging it to the right.
So, lessons for liberals elsewhere? Be cheerful, upbeat and open to ideologically challenging coalitions, sure. But it helps if your political system is fragmented, voters volatile, the last government was a basket case, and everyone to your left does badly.
And even then, you haven’t really beaten the far right.
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