Full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the emission reduction targets of countries, can limit global warming to 2.3-2.5 degrees C over pre-industrial levels, compared to 2.6-2.8 degrees C based on commitments up to last year.
But, implementing only current policies would lead to up to 2.8 degrees C of warming, compared to 3.1 degrees C last year, United Nations Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap report titled “Off Target” said on Tuesday.
To be sure, methodological updates account for 0.1 degree C of the improvement, and given the upcoming withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement which will cancel another 0.1 degree C, the new NDCs themselves have barely moved the needle, the UNEP report has warned.
Nations remain far from meeting the Paris Agreement goal to limit warming to well-below 2 degrees C, while pursuing efforts to keep it below 1.5 degrees C.
If Nationally Determined Contributions are fully implemented by 2035, global warming would reach 2.3 degrees Celsius – down from 2.6 degrees in last year’s projections. But, this also considers the US’s NDC which is unlikely to be implemented, according to UNEP’s emission gap report.
Most importantly, temporary breach of the Paris Agreement’s lower limit or the 1.5 degrees C goal is now certain, the report indicates. “New scenarios show that limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C by 2100 remains technically possible. However, due to the continued delay in deep emission cuts, 1.5 degree C pathways now imply higher temporary exceedance of this temperature target. The magnitude and duration of this overshoot must be limited as much as possible. Each year of delayed action locks in carbon-intensive infrastructure. It results in greater losses for people and ecosystems, higher adaptation costs and a heavier reliance on costly and uncertain carbon dioxide (CO2) removal,” the report said.
Each year of inaction makes the path to net zero by 2050 and net-negative emissions thereafter steeper, more expensive and more disruptive, it added.
Global GHG (green house gas) emissions reached 57.7 GtCO2e (giga tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) in 2024, a 2.3% increase from 2023 levels. The 2.3% increase in total GHG emissions from 2023 levels is high compared with the 2022-2023 increase of 1.6%, the report said.
“It is more than four times higher than the annual average growth rate in the 2010s (0.6% per year), and comparable to the emissions growth in the 2000s (on average 2.2% per year)
GHG emissions of the G20 members, excluding the African Union, account for 77% of global emissions and will increase by 0.7% in 2024. Many countries outside of G20 also showed significant increases in emissions in 2024. Of the six largest emitters of GHGs, the European Union was the only one to decrease emissions in 2024, the report pointed out.
“Current commitments still point to climate breakdown. Scientists tell us that a temporary overshoot above 1.5 degrees is now inevitable– starting, at the latest, in the early 2030s,” Antonio Guterres, UN Secretary General said on Tuesday. “COP30 in Belém must be the turning point – where the world delivers a bold and credible response plan to close the ambition and implementation gaps; to mobilize the 1.3 US trillion dollars a year by 2035 in climate finance for developing countries; and to advance climate justice for all. The path to 1.5 degrees is narrow – but open.”
According to the report, the highest absolute growth in emissions occurred in India, followed by China and Indonesia, which are also among the most populated countries globally. In terms of growth rate, Indonesia showed the highest increase (4.6%) followed by India (3.6%). Emissions growth in China (0.5% in 2024) was lower than the previous year.
Currently, the six largest emitters in terms of total GHG emissions are China, the United States of America, India, the European Union, the Russian Federation and Indonesia. Most of the G20 countries recorded an increase in emissions in 2024. Preliminary estimates for 2024 show an increase in GHG emissions compared with 2023 in all of these except the European Union.
The report however flags that there is huge variation in per capita emissions. Contributions by current, per capita and historic emissions differ across the high emitters and world regions. Per capita GHG emissions are above the world average of 6.4 tons of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) in the US, the Russian Federation, China and the European Union, and remain significantly below it in Indonesia and India, the report said.
The per capita emissions of least developed countries (LDCs) is 1.5 tCO2e. In terms of historic cumulative CO2 emissions, the United States of America has produced the most global CO2 emissions to date, followed by China and the European Union. The LDCs and the African Union have only produced a minor share of historic cumulative emissions, despite being highly populous countries and regions. Several countries with high per capita and historic emitters have still to peak in their emissions including India, the report said.
