COP30 (Conference of Parties) opens in Brazil’s Belem–a city in the Amazon, today [Monday] with high expectations that it will be an important moment for the Global South countries. It will also be a crucial meeting, as it is unlikely to have any official participation from the Trump administration, despite observers expecting China to take a relatively prominent role in the talks.
Adaptation indicators, including the implementation of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and the Paris Agreement, as well as the NDCs submitted so far for the 2030 period, the Just Transition Work Programme, and the delivery of climate finance, among others, may be discussed during the negotiations.
Observers and negotiators who wished to remain anonymous warned that there are strong diplomatic headwinds that parties should be wary of. It is important to recollect that pressured by the United States, member countries of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), postponed a vote on a strategic plan to move the shipping industry away from the use of fossil fuel and become ‘net-zero’ by 2050.
The US warned of retaliatory restrictions and sanctions against countries that vote in favour of an International Maritime Organisation (IMO) proposal to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from ships, observers said. “Similar fears are there, and there may be pressure on particular parties. That is why COP30 will be diplomatically a very challenging environment,” an observer said.
On Friday, the COP30 Presidency of Brazil sent out its ninth letter to Parties, which sums up what is likely to come up. The letter invites all Parties to help turn gaps into levers.
Drawing from the latest reports, including the Global Tipping Points Report, the letter acknowledges the scale of challenges ahead and the tools to respond as the global community gathers in Belém.
Following the completion of the Paris Rulebook at COP29, the latest edition will be the first COP where the full policy cycle of the Paris Agreement is in motion. Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), Biennial Transparency Reports (BTRs), and the Enhanced Transparency Framework are now active instruments of global climate governance, the letter states.
While it may appear like the stakes are not as high as, say, last year when the New Collective Quantified Goal was on the table for negotiation, thepositions countries take may still send important signals, experts said.
HT reported on November 6 that the Brazilian COP30 and Azerbaijan COP29 Presidencies have released the much-awaited report on the ‘Baku To Belem Roadmap To USD 1.3T’, which documents how to deliver $1.3 trillion annually for developing countries from all international sources by 2035. But this document will not be negotiated on and remains outside the work of COP30.
“I urge all Parties to use our work under the negotiating agenda as a Mutirão (collective effort) for shifting the Paris policy cycle from design to delivery. COP30 can signal the maturation of the regime – from negotiation to coordinated implementation – anchored in equity, science, and cooperation,” André Corrêa do Lago, COP30 President, wrote in his latest letter.
China may assume a prominent role
Observers believe that China, the largest greenhouse gas emitter, is positioning itself to fill the void created by the US, especially because it also has economic interests in the green transition.
“Earlier this year, at a COP event in April 2025 – the Leaders’ Summit on Climate and Just Transitions, President Xi Jinping made a strong pitch for China to remain committed to global climate goals. Xi criticised ‘major countries’ for their unilateralism, iterating China’s support for international climate cooperation through multilateral governance platforms. Xi has called China a ‘doer’, one that has taken strong action for tangible results,” said Pooja Vijay Ramamurthi, fellow, Centre For Social and Economic Progress. “Second, Xi also called out the protectionist stances of powers of the free circulation of high-quality green products, and promotion of technological innovation and industrial transformation through cooperation. Therefore, given that these are the stances of China at previous climate events, it will certainly take up a leadership role,” she added.
China may call for the continuation of multilateral platforms, encouraging countries to engage in constructive climate negotiations. It will point out its own large-scale, rapid green transitions, positioning itself as a leader whose model can be followed. Rather than keeping a low profile, it is expected that China will portray itself a champion of green transitions, given that other major powers such as the US are backing down.
It will however, as usual, place itself into the Global South camp, calling for solidarity against ramping down coal too soon. This has been reflected in China’s NDCs, which some critics do not find as ambitious as some expected, Ramamurthi noted.
Adaptation likely to be critical for India
HT reported on November 4 that finalising adaptation indicators at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) in Belem will be an important issue for India, Union environment minister Bhupender Yadav said in a briefing. “Adaptation is an important issue at COP30. The adaptation indicators need to be rationalised. It will be a big issue. Indicators must be rationalised, based on national circumstances, finance, technology, capacity, etc,” Yadav said. India’s nationally determined contribution and national adaptation plan is also expected soon. It is likely to present its successful renewable energy transition at COP30. India has achieved one of its nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement, 5 years in advance. It has crossed its target of installing 50% of its power capacity from non-fossil sources. India is confident of achieving the target of 500 GW of installed electricity capacity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030, Pralhad Joshi, minister of new and renewable energy has said.
“The time for promises is now over. COP30 must mark the shift from a bank of commitments to a true bank of actions, where delivery, not declarations, defines progress. Nowhere is this more urgent than in South Asia, a region on the front lines of the climate crisis, from the small island states like Sri Lanka to the mountains of Nepal, and the vulnerable states of India among others. For India, climate action is both a necessity and an opportunity driven by innovation and powered by partnerships. But to succeed, the world must come together through smarter, more inclusive multilateralism that rewards implementation and builds genuine coalitions of the doing,” said Arunabha Ghosh, CEO of the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) and special envoy for COP30 representing South Asia.
The COP when 1.5 degree C goal became obsolete
It will be important to look at how Parties respond to various scientific indicators at COP30. Temporary exceedance of the Paris Agreement’s lower limit or the 1.5 degree C goal is now certain, the United Nations Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap report, indicates. “New scenarios show that limiting warming to 1.5 degree C by 2100 remains technically possible. However, due to the continued delay in deep emission cuts, 1.5 degree C pathways now imply higher temporary exceedance of this temperature target. The magnitude and duration of this overshoot must be limited as much as possible. Each year of delayed action locks in carbon-intensive infrastructure. It results in greater losses for people and ecosystems, higher adaptation costs and a heavier reliance on costly and uncertain carbon dioxide (CO2) removal,” the report has said.
Further, The Global Tipping Points Report 2025, by the University of Exeter and international partners including the Stockholm Resilience Centre, found that widespread mortality of warm-water coral reefs is now underway as the world reaches its first climate tipping point. Forests are also an important issue. Brazil, the host of COP30 officially launched the Tropical Forest Forever Facility at the COP30 Leaders’ Summit on Thursday. The TFFF is an initiative that incentivizes the conservation and expansion of tropical forests by making annual payments to Tropical Forest Countries that maintain their standing forest. India will join the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF), Brazil’s global initiative to curb deforestation, as an “observer,” Dinesh Bhatia, ambassador of India to Brazil said in his statement on day 2 of the Belem Leaders’ Summit on Friday.
“The Amazon embodies the truth that awaits us in Belém: the future of humanity and the health of the planet are inseparable. The forest is not a distant frontier; it is a living center of the global climate system, the beating heart of hydrological cycles, and a guardian of the world’s carbon balance. If the Amazon crosses its tipping point, the planet will struggle to recover equilibrium, Lago has said.
