A decade after the Syrian civil war and global instability sent an unprecedented number of migrants flooding into Europe from other regions, migration continues to dominate political debates across the continent.
In 2015, more than a million people crossed into Europe in search of safety and opportunity, marking the continent’s largest movement of people since World War II. It was the end of the summer, when former German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s “Wir schaffen das” (“We can do it”) captured a fleeting sense of hope that Europe could rise to the challenge.
But optimism quickly gave way to division. The sudden influx of migrants strained asylum systems, sparked culture wars, and fueled the rise of populist movements across the continent.
Far-right parties seized the moment. Their representation in European governments has nearly doubled over the past two election cycles, and they’ve reshaped the way Europeans view and speak about migration.
Since then, rising security concerns, economic uncertainty, and deep political polarisation have hardened attitudes. Governments that once opened their doors have increasingly turned to fences, border patrols, and offshore deals to keep migrants out.
A decade later, Europe finds itself asking familiar questions: What has changed since 2015? Are the numbers once again signalling a migration crisis? Or is this just the new normal?
The way in
Migration to Europe has traditionally moved along five main routes. Three of those feed into the Mediterranean: the Western route through Ceuta, Melilla, and mainland Spain; the Central route to Italy and Malta; and the Eastern route via Cyprus, Greece, and Bulgaria.
Two others bypass the Mediterranean altogether: the Atlantic route to Spain’s Canary Islands and the Western Balkan route through North Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia.
Lastly, the Eastern Borders route, a 6,000 km line along the EU’s eastern flank, remains the least popular route.
In 2015, the Eastern Mediterranean and Western Balkan routes made up 90% of all irregular border crossings, which were mainly driven by Syrians, Afghans, and Iraqis seeking to avoid the deadly Libya-Italy corridor, then rife with smugglers and shipwrecks.
Despite the danger, the Central Mediterranean route remained a key entry point for migrants during the last decade. This year, the route accounted for 38% of crossings between January and September, with the Eastern Mediterranean route accounting for 28%.
The national mix, however, has shifted. Bangladeshis, Egyptians, and Afghans now account for the majority of border crossings, a result of evolving migration drivers and shifting regional conflicts.
The numbers
Irregular border crossings and asylum applications tell parallel but distinct stories. At its peak in 2015, Europe recorded 1.8 million irregular crossings. EU border closures and the COVID-19 pandemic drove numbers down, but crossings rose again, reaching 380,000 by 2023.
While 2025 isn’t over, the familiar seasonal rhythm holds, with migration peaking during seasons with warmer weather and calmer waters.
Still, by September, 133,000 crossings were logged, 20% fewer than in the first half of 2024.
Asylum applications followed a similar trajectory. Peak numbers reached 1.3 million in 2015-2016, dipping below half a million during the 2020 pandemic.
By 2023, applications reached heights not seen since the crisis’s peak. The first half of 2025 saw approximately 399,000 applications in the EU+ (EU27, Norway, Switzerland), a 23% decrease from 2024 and 7% lower compared to the same period in 2015.
As to who gets granted protection status, that has also changed. In 2015, Syrians (50%), Eritreans (8%), and Iraqis (7%) were the most prevalent. By mid-2025, Afghans (20%), Venezuelans (19%), and Somalis (5%) were the leading groups. Germany, once the top destination for Syrians, has seen a 40% drop in applications, overtaken by France and Spain.
Europe’s migration flows over the past decade have been driven mainly by one conflict: the Syrian Civil War.
Assad’s 2011 crackdown sent half a million Syrians to Europe by 2015. Still, the sudden fall of Damascus to the militant group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in December 2024 has reversed the trend. Fewer Syrians are filing asylum applications, hoping instead to return home.
Some European countries are already making plans for Syrian refugees. With the Syrian war over, Germany – the EU’s largest host of Syrian refugees – says they no longer qualify for asylum. The current German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, said that Berlin will encourage citizens to return home to help rebuild their country, a policy that some other European nations are already preparing to follow.
For now, however, Syrians and Afghans – particularly Afghan women, who the Court of Justice of the European Union recognized as a persecuted group under the Taliban in October of 2024 – continue to see high protection rates.
The politics
Despite the decline in numbers, migration remains a dominant force in politics. Elections across Europe have reignited calls for tougher borders and faster deportations.
The European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) cautions that the figures indicate a temporary easing of pressure on asylum systems, rather than a long-term trend. Backlogs in processing asylum cases remain high, and shifts in migration routes could quickly reverse the downward trend.
With the New Pact on Migration and Asylum set to take effect in mid-2026, the EU faces a familiar challenge: balancing deterrence and protection while keeping 27 governments aligned.
(mm, cm)
