How to watch the Dutch election like a pro

Green-Left Labor, led by veteran politician Frans Timmermans, is also in the mix.

But as the Dutch say: Don’t sell the hide before the bear is shot. In the last election, most voters didn’t make up their minds until the final moments. This means that for Wilders especially, turnout will be critical.

No matter what his result, he is expected to be frozen out of coalition talks, having burned too many bridges in The Hague. If he wins the most votes but is still sidelined from government, he’s likely to use it as ammunition to argue his followers are being ignored and Dutch democracy is dead.

A recap

The Dutch are still reeling from the electoral earthquake that upended the political landscape in 2023, when Wilders’ PVV won the most votes for the first time ever. 

After decades of being politically sidelined for its anti-Islam, anti-immigrant and anti-establishment standpoints, the PVV was suddenly at the center of the most right-wing government in modern Dutch history. 

To form a coalition, it teamed up with three other forces right of center, including the VVD and two smaller newcomer parties.