Four enlargement hopefuls show progress on EU membership bid

EU candidate countries Albania, Montenegro, Moldova, and Ukraine have all made significant progress on key reforms that the EU considers essential for joining the bloc, the European Commission said in its annual enlargement report on Tuesday.

Ten states – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Kosovo, Turkey, and Ukraine – are all officially EU candidate countries. To join, they must align national laws with the bloc’s 35 negotiation chapters and gradually meet the standards set by EU institutions.

However, EU accession is a long, technical, and highly politicised process, as every major step requires the unanimous backing of all EU member states. As the process has dragged on for years or even decades, some countries, such as Serbia and Georgia, have started to backtrack on reforms. In contrast, others, such as Albania and Montenegro, have made significant strides.

Brussels said reforms in areas such as the rule of law, democracy, fundamental rights, public administration, and the economy are vital to the accession process.

Montenegro remains “the most advanced candidate,” with Albania close behind after making major progress on judicial reform. Both candidate countries have pledged to wrap up negotiations by 2026 and 2027, respectively.

Ukraine and Moldova advance in tandem

Moldova and Ukraine were praised for advancing on key reforms and setting the goal of closing negotiations by 2028. The report’s language on both countries is nearly identical.

Tinatin Akhvlediani, a research fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) in Brussels, told Euractiv the similarity was intentional. The two countries are seen as “running in parallel”.

Consequently, splitting Moldova’s path from Ukraine’s would be seen as a significant political setback for Kyiv, given that both countries applied for membership soon after Russia’s full-scale invasion of its smaller neighbor in early 2022.

The Commission’s wording signals that there is political will to keep both countries on a fast-track path towards accession. However, progress could still be stalled by potential vetoes from member states.

Hungary remains the main obstacle to Ukraine’s accession, blocking any move to open negotiating clusters. Meanwhile, France and Germany are calling for a more cautious pace, suggesting it might take more than 10 years for Kyiv to join the bloc. 

Still, Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos stressed on Tuesday that the most important thing is that candidate countries “have ambitious goals.”

“For me, ambitions are more important than years or dates,” Kos said.

Reform fatigue hits the Balkans

Meanwhile, North Macedonia saw no improvement in the judiciary or fundamental rights, while Bosnia and Herzegovina lagged in freedom of expression and the fight against corruption. Kosovo made no progress on the free movement of goods or on integrating gender equality and evidence-based policymaking.

Turkey’s EU bid has been stalled since 2018, with little progress amid concerns over democratic backsliding and the rule of law. Georgia’s path has also faltered, as the accession process effectively halted in 2024, following the government’s shift away from Western alliances. At the end of last year, Tbilisi decided to put its EU ambitions on hold until 2028.

Serbia, marred by protests, is also failing to deliver on its reforms.

“The actual pace of implementation of reforms has slowed down significantly,” Kos said, adding that “Serbia needs to deliver on credible reforms across the board, most importantly in the area of fundamentals.”

During a visit to Belgrade last month, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić that his country needs to reaffirm its commitment to EU membership.

“We need to see progress on the rule of law, the electoral framework, and media freedom,” she said.

Given Serbia’s deepening democratic backsliding, the EU could justifiably take a tougher stance – applying negative conditionality, sanctions, or even suspending financial support – in line with its merit-based approach, Akhvlediani said.

Nicoletta Ionta contributed to reporting.

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