BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 7. Kazakhstan’s
President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s visit to Washington and his talks
with U.S. President Donald Trump were not just a diplomatic event;
they marked a stage symbolizing the formation of a new geo-economic
order in Eurasia. Tokayev’s support for Trump’s initiative, the
“Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP),
signals the beginning of an entirely new phase in the development
of the Middle Corridor and reshapes the regional balance of
power.
Following the meeting, the U.S. leader emphasized that TRIPP
represents more than a new transport era; it is also a result of
the historic peace agreement reached between Azerbaijan and Armenia
through U.S. mediation.
“They named this route after me, and I am proud of that. This
road will unite East and West, passing through the world’s most
strategically important region to create new trade opportunities
for the Caspian and Central Asian countries,” Trump said.
For the first time in many years, the U.S. returns to the region
not with a military presence but with an economic and
infrastructure-focused project. In essence, TRIPP is not just a
route; it is a full-fledged logistical ecosystem linking the
Caspian, the Caucasus, and Türkiye while creating an alternative to
Russian and Iranian routes.
Today, Kazakhstan is becoming a key country in Washington’s
regional strategy. Agreements worth more than $17 billion cover
sectors such as energy, rare metals extraction, high technologies,
and transport infrastructure. Kazakhstan supplies about one-fourth
of America’s uranium needs, making it a strategic supplier for the
U.S. nuclear energy industry.
In addition, U.S. investments in Kazakhstan are directed toward
tungsten and rare earth element production, reflecting Washington’s
aim to reduce its dependence on China and diversify raw material
supplies. Against the backdrop of sanctions imposed on Russia,
Kazakhstan serves as an economic bridge between East and West while
maintaining its multi-vector diplomacy.
The “Trump Route” in practice forms a new economic line of
growth, stretching from Kazakhstan across the Caspian Sea through
Azerbaijan, then Türkiye, and finally reaching Europe. For
Azerbaijan, this is not merely a transit project but an opportunity
to strengthen its role as a key junction of the Middle
Corridor.
Currently, more than 8 million tons of transit cargo pass
through Azerbaijan each year. Within the TRIPP framework, this
figure could rise to about 15 million tons, equivalent to roughly
one and a half million standard containers (TEU). For comparison,
the largest port on the Black Sea, Constanța, handles a similar
volume annually.
The implementation of TRIPP compels the Caspian countries to
accelerate the development of their port and railway
infrastructure. The Baku International Sea Trade Port, with an
annual cargo-handling capacity of 15 million tons, is poised to
become the main Caspian hub.
For Azerbaijan, the project is simultaneously significant in
three dimensions: economic, geopolitical, and technological.
Economically, it promises higher transit revenues, the expansion of
logistics and service sectors, and the creation of new jobs.
Geopolitically, Azerbaijan becomes a guarantor of stability and
cooperation among Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Türkiye.
Technologically, it drives a shift toward digital and “smart”
corridors, integrating logistics with IT platforms, automated
customs systems, and data exchange.
The Baku Port, the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway, and the Alat and
Samur-South logistics centers form the foundation of this route.
Azerbaijan is also deepening cooperation with Kazakhstan and
Turkmenistan within the Trans-Caspian Transport Consortium.
Through TRIPP, the U.S. is effectively returning to a region
long considered part of Russian and Chinese spheres of influence.
The new route reduces Europe’s dependence on northern corridors and
enables cargo from China and Central Asia to reach Europe in just
about 12-14 days without transiting Russian territory, compared to
nearly a month currently.
Thus, the U.S. is strengthening its foothold in the region not
through military bases, but through infrastructure, the quietest
and most enduring form of influence. This represents a “soft power”
strategy under the guise of economic integration. In this
landscape, Azerbaijan holds a highly advantageous position, both
geographically and politically stable, qualities often lacking in
neighboring countries.
Alongside these opportunities, there are risks as well. The
first involves regional security. Since the route passes through
Armenia, reliable guarantees are required. The U.S. and the
European Union have stated their readiness to provide such
assurances, yet in practice this will demand a delicate balance of
interests.
The second challenge is competition among routes. Russia will
actively promote the “North–South” corridor passing through Iran
and the Caspian, while China will continue advancing its Central
Asian branches of the “Belt and Road” initiative. For Azerbaijan,
the priority will be to attract cargo flows through competitive
tariffs, minimal bureaucracy, and high service standards.
The third factor concerns financing. Expanding infrastructure
requires investments worth billions of dollars, making the
attraction of private investors and public–private partnerships a
top priority.
To maximize the benefits of this new geopolitical reality,
Azerbaijan must take proactive steps, first, modernizing railways
and terminals, expanding Baku Port’s capacity, and developing
multimodal hubs.
The second direction is creating an attractive legal and
administrative environment for international carriers. A
“single-window” principle, transparent tariff policies, and digital
customs systems could ensure Azerbaijan’s transformation into a
leading transit center.
The third is strengthening institutional ties with Kazakhstan,
Türkiye, and Central Asian states through the establishment of
joint logistics companies, insurance funds, and transport
alliances.
Azerbaijan’s role on this map is no longer limited to being a
bridge; it now has the potential to become one of the architects of
Eurasia’s new economic architecture.
TRIPP is not merely Trump’s personal project; it is an attempt
to redraw Eurasia’s economic map and bring the U.S. back into the
region through infrastructure, trade, and energy. For Azerbaijan,
it represents a once-in-a-decade opportunity to solidify its
position as a transport hub, turn geography into economic capital,
and evolve from a bridge between East and West into a strategic
crossroads shaping Eurasia’s destiny.
With competent management, flexible diplomacy, and long-term
strategic planning, Azerbaijan can become not only a participant in
the new route but one of the players setting its rules.
If viewed not as a political slogan but as a structured economic
initiative, it becomes clear that TRIPP aims to systematically
rebuild Eurasia’s entire logistics network. According to the U.S.
Department of Commerce, total cargo turnover between Central Asia
and Europe in 2024 reached 78 million tons, only 8 percent of which
passed through the Caspian. The potential, however, remains vast:
if current tariffs are maintained, the figure could rise to around
one-fifth (20-22 percent) by 2026.
Over the past year, more than 2.7 million tons of cargo were
transported along the Middle Corridor, a 35 percent increase
compared to 2023. This figure, which exceeded even the most
optimistic forecasts, is expected to grow further following the
peace deal signed between Azerbaijan and Armenia in August 2025 and
the corridor’s inclusion under TRIPP. Experts predict transit
volumes may reach at least 10 million tons by 2027.
By contrast, traditional routes through Russia, including the
Trans-Siberian and Northern Sea corridors, have lost about 40
percent of Asian cargo due to sanctions, long delivery times, and
geopolitical risks. Routes passing through Iran and the Persian
Gulf are also deemed unstable due to regional tensions. In this
context, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are becoming new centers of
attraction for transit investments.
One of TRIPP’s main junctions is the Caspian Sea. Kazakhstan has
taken significant steps here: the annual capacity of the Aktau port
has reached 25 million tons, while the new Kuryk terminal
specializes in ferry and container transport. On Azerbaijan’s side,
Alat (the Baku International Sea Trade Port) serves as the system’s
backbone. The port already handles up to 15 million tons per year,
with plans to expand this to 25 million in the near future.
Alat is not merely a transport node but a full-fledged economic
zone hosting more than 130 resident companies operating in
logistics, information technology, and manufacturing. This model
reflects the concept of “logistics as a platform,” integrating
transport, finance, insurance, and digital services into a unified
system.
As of 2025, total U.S. direct investment in Kazakhstan exceeds
$40 billion, with more than $12 billion allocated to rare earth and
uranium production. Under new agreements, two processing plants and
a logistics cluster along Kazakhstan’s Caspian border are
planned.
A major announcement by Trump during his visit was his intention
to invest in “21st century infrastructure.” The package, worth $35
billion, will be financed through U.S. export–credit agencies and
private consortia.
Digital connectivity is also a central focus of TRIPP: an
optical fiber network will link Central Asia, Azerbaijan, and
Türkiye with European data centers, making the route both a
transport and information corridor.
Within Azerbaijan, several key infrastructure projects directly
connected to TRIPP are underway. More than 70 percent of the
110-kilometer Horadiz–Aghband railway has been completed. This line
will connect Nakhchivan with the mainland and form part of the
international transit corridor.
In addition, work has begun on widening the Ganja–Gazakh–Georgia
border highway, which will serve as a main artery for container
shipments toward Tbilisi and Kars. Azerbaijan is also developing a
network of logistics centers in Ganja, Yevlakh, Nakhchivan, and
Sumgayit, forming the foundation of a new infrastructure system
that will transform the country from a transit space into a
full-fledged economic intermediary.
TRIPP is directly tied to ongoing transformations in Eurasia.
After Trump’s visit to Asia in the summer of 2025, it became clear
that Washington is reformatting its regional strategy, shifting
from military presence to control over trade and transport
corridors. Within this new infrastructure axis, the U.S. views
Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Türkiye as pivotal states.
For Azerbaijan, the project also means a strengthened strategic
alliance with Türkiye and the expansion of its economic sphere into
Central Asia. Cooperation with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan across
the Caspian enhances the project’s Turkic dimension, forming what
Western analysts are already calling the “Turkic Silk Belt.”
In this evolving landscape, Azerbaijan is not just a transit
country; it is becoming the center where Eurasia’s economic and
political pulse converges.
According to preliminary estimates by Azerbaijan’s Ministry of
Economy, annual revenues from transit operations and related
services could reach about $1.2 billion by 2030. The creation of
new logistics hubs could generate up to 30,000 new jobs.
Moreover, the expansion of export and transit operations is
expected to boost the country’s GDP growth by 2.5–3 percent
annually. The Baku Transportation Research Center estimates that
every 10 million tons of transit cargo brings an additional $400
million to the national economy through port fees, insurance,
services, and processing.
To fully realize the potential of TRIPP, Azerbaijan must not
only participate but also become a coordination center. Key
priorities in the coming years include:
– completing the railway corridor to Nakhchivan and integrating
it with Türkiye;
– expanding the Baku Port and Alat container terminal;
– digitalizing all transit procedures;
– creating joint logistics companies with Kazakhstan, Türkiye,
and Central Asian partners.
Additionally, potential risks must be accounted for, including
Armenia’s political maneuvering, possible pressure from Russia and
Iran, and fluctuations in global energy markets.
TRIPP is becoming a tool of Eurasia’s global reconfiguration. It
is not merely Trump’s diplomatic initiative; it is the
infrastructural foundation of a new era. In this framework, the
primary source of power lies not in oil but in control over
routes.
Situated at the heart of this new map, Azerbaijan has gained a
historic opportunity for strategic advancement. How this
opportunity is utilized will determine the nation’s future:
Azerbaijan may become the central hub of Eurasia’s logistics, or
remain a secondary player in others’ projects.
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