“Scientia potestas est — Knowledge is power!” That phrase was coined by English philosopher Sir Francis Bacon at the end of the 16th century, when England was one of the world’s leading empires, both in terms of science and power politics. It was Bacon’s aim to point out to his contemporaries that knowledge is of strategic use — a motto that’s still valid today.
The global research landscape is currently facing a turning point: According to a new survey published in the “Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences” (PNAS) periodical, Chinese scientists had already taken the leading role in almost half of all collaborations with US colleagues in 2023. This is a historical figure that underlines Beijing’s rapid influence gain. China now sets the research agenda when it comes to key international issues.
China’s leading role: Change of power at the top based on new criteria
It’s not just conventional indicators such as the prestigious, but also antiquated Nobel Prizes or mere publication numbers that reflect actual scientific power. China’s rise is now measured by other criteria as well. An analysis of some six million research papers shows that 45% of leadership positions in US-Chinese joint studies were in Chinese hands in 2023, compared to 30% in 2010. If this trend continues, China will reach parity with the US in leading roles in strategic areas such as artificial intelligence, semiconductor research and materials science by 2027-8.
China is also in the lead in terms of scientific publications. According to the latest G20 Research and Innovation Report, almost 900.000 scientific publications originate from China, which amounts to a threefold increase compared to 2015. In the Nature Index, which evaluates the 150 most important medical and natural science periodicals, China has long since overtaken the US. Among the ten leading institutions, whose publications in periodicals are evaluated by the Nature Index, seven are Chinese institutions.
The situation looks less flattering for the West with its approximately 20,000 scientific institutions: Harvard University in the US still leads the Nature ranking while positions 2 to 9 are occupied by Chinese universities exclusively. Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in the US is ranked at position 10.
Strategy, investment, networking: Why China is gaining ground in research
China has invested massively in science and has turned it into the centerpiece of its development strategy. The country has increasingly opened up its research to international cooperation and actively organizes this collaboration. Chinese students and scientists are encouraged to work worldwide. This is how a network for increased international collaboration developed.
In technology industries in particular — and also through the export of education via the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), an infrastructure and development project — billions of investment dollars go toward attracting talent to China and building global connections. According to the PNAS study, science diplomacy is deliberately used as a tool.
Central management vs. creativity: Strengths and weaknesses of the Chinese system
Speed, strategic investment and centrally controlled networks are China’s strengths. Engineering, electronics, materials science, physics and chemistry provide outstanding results and high citation rates.
Strict central control by institutions, however, does not only have advantages. In numerous areas of research, China lacks groundbreaking innovations and also the required independence in science. Success can be navigated in a controlled way, but creativity cannot. In this respect, the US with its decentralized, company-driven culture of innovation still has a considerable advantage over China and Europe.
In addition, times are getting tougher for international research collaboration. The US and Europe view China as a strategic rival, and the recent geopolitical and economic upheavals have been mutually unhelpful.
Race between China and US for AI supremacy
The US is still in the lead with regard to artificial intelligence (AI), but China is catching up fast. The Deepseek language model shows how quickly and cheaply Chinese technologies can enter the market. Harvard remains a carrier of innovation in this area, too, but Chinese academies are catching up fast.
Today, it’s predominantly China that plays a key role in AI patent applications. The US is still keeping pace rather well, but even the best European institutions are often far behind in global comparisons.
The crisis of Western systems: Why are US, EU lagging behind?
China’s rise coincides with a period of weakness in the US and Europe. The US-American research landscape is suffering from political turmoil, budget cuts and an exodus of top talent. US President Donald Trump’s austerity measures and the open discord between the two superpowers result in a noticeable decrease in joint projects and a shift of talent toward China.
Europe may be able to benefit from top talent from the US and other parts of the world, who are no longer really welcome in the United States. The European backlog, however, in many areas of science is immense, and the great turnaround often falls through because of national sensitivities or restrictions — both within the European Union and in the remaining parts of Europe.
Global fallout: China’s rise changes the balance of power
China’s seemingly unstoppable rise is changing the global economic and geopolitical order: China is organizing parts of the international research agenda, while Europe is falling further and further behind in the race for future technologies.
One option would be deliberate collaboration with Chinese teams, just in order to keep up at least. It remains an open question how the Chinese system will respond to the increasing fragmentation of the scientific landscape and geopolitical tensions.
Europe’s opportunity in research: Diversity is not a weakness
A real alternative to progressing fragmentation would be a purposeful setup of a European force beyond national interests. Europe’s diversity in languages, cultures and traditions is no weakness. Diversity can generate innovation, which is not offered by monolithic countries.
“Knowledge is power” — now it would be important to use Europe’s diversity as a driving force for innovation. Likewise, the European Research Area (ERA) monitoring report points out that if Europe cooperates purposefully and pools its resources, it can turn into a scientific powerhouse which can compete with China and the US at eye level.
This article was originally published in German.
