Timmermans boosted by gay youth controversy

What determines the calendar in Brussels? The school holidays or the European institutions? It’s a chicken-and-egg situation. Whatever the answer, the city is remarkably quiet this week.

Welcome to Rapporteur. This is Eddy Wax, with Nicoletta Ionta.

Want to keep me busy? Drop me a line – I read every message.

Need-to-knows:

• Netherlands: Gay rights controversy roils Dutch election as centrists seek comeback
• Spain: Pedro Sánchez’s fragile alliance falters as Catalan separatists cut ties
• Trade: Germany urges calm as EU-China tensions flare over mineral curbs

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From the capital

It’s starting to get exciting in the Netherlands, which goes to the polls on Wednesday for a snap vote.

Dutch elections always end with some kind of multi-way coalition, but it was safe to assume this campaign would be dominated by a two-way slugfest between anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders and Left-Green leader Frans Timmermans.

That has largely been the case – with the pair duelling in recent days over AI-generated images used by Wilders’ MPs against the leftwinger, who’s taking his second crack at becoming prime minister since leaving the Commission in 2023.

But with Wilders deemed too toxic for most other parties, the real question has been who might come second to him, form a coalition, and become prime minister. It was, in some ways, Timmermans’ to lose.

However, a dark horse candidate in the shape of Christian Democrat leader Henri Bontenbal, a 42-year-old former energy consultant, ran a campaign built on quiet decency – aiming to differentiate himself from the polarising Wilders-Timmermans battle and resurrect his almost-dead party. Polls briefly put him neck-and-neck with the Green Deal’s architect.

That was until last week, when Bontenbal’s low-key strategy combusted spectacularly. In a televised interview, he suggested that a gay pupil at a publicly funded Christian school could choose to attend another school if he felt uncomfortable about his sexual identity.

In a largely secular country proud of its liberalism, Bontenbal’s risk-averse campaign suddenly heated up. And he lost five projected seats, according to polling.

Bontenbal has apologised and remains personally popular, but the gaffe could benefit Timmermans – or the race’s other dark horse: Rob Jetten. A more progressive version of Mark Rutte, Jetten, 38, is a former energy minister who leads the liberal D66 party. He is having a very good campaign and enjoying a late burst in the polls.

If the centrist parties – Timmermans’ Green Left, Bontenbal’s CDA, Jetten’s D66, and Rutte’s old VVD now led by Dilan Yeşilgöz – manage to form a coalition despite their differences, a more compromise-based form of Dutch politics will return.

That would mark a shift after two years under a right-wing government that failed to get much done and largely sought to cast Brussels as a hindrance.

The EU could be about to get a lot more Dutch.

Sánchez abandoned by Catalan separatists

Catalan separatist party Junts on Monday said it would “unanimously break relations” with Spain’s ruling Socialists over what it called unfulfilled promises tied to Pedro Sánchez’s re-election deal.

Party leader Carles Puigdemont accused Madrid of failing to transfer powers and fully apply the amnesty law shielding independence figures, including himself, my colleague Inés Fernández-Pontes reported.

The split, still subject to a grassroots vote, would leave Sánchez’s minority government without Junts’ seven MPs, threatening future budgets and deepening uncertainty over the coalition’s stability.

Germany aims to defuse EU-China crossfire

Germany’s foreign minister urged calm on Monday amid a mounting trade spat between the EU and China over Beijing’s new export curbs on critical minerals – just days after Brussels hinted at pulling the trigger on its so-called “trade bazooka.”

“We want a close dialogue with China,” Johann Wadephul said during a visit to Brussels after meetings with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič.

Von der Leyen warned over the weekend that she’s “ready to use all instruments in our toolbox” in response to China’s move – remarks widely seen as a thinly veiled threat to deploy the EU executive’s much-vaunted anti-coercion instrument, informally known as the “trade bazooka.”

France’s Emmanuel Macron also floated using the measure, which would let Brussels target services, investment, and licences. Beijing, meanwhile, sought to dial down the rhetoric, with a Foreign Ministry spokesperson touting China’s “mutually beneficial” ties with Germany.

EU eyes moving training mission east

EU military officials are drawing up contingency plans to shift the bloc’s training mission for Ukrainian troops into Ukraine itself – but only if a ceasefire takes hold. “EUMAM would have to evolve,” said Seán Clancy, chair of the EU Military Committee, in an interview with my colleague Aurelie Pugnet.

The move would mark a major shift in the EU’s military posture, turning the current external training effort into a security guarantee for Ukrainian soil. Clancy stressed that no action will be taken until conditions permit, but renewed US efforts to broker peace have revived discussions long stalled in Brussels.

Tree-mendous mess

A plan by the Commission to simplify the bloc’s deforestation rules has deepened tensions with member states, several of which accuse Brussels of changing course without warning.

Marek Výborný, the Czech agriculture minister, told my colleague Sofia Sanchez Manzanaro that he felt blindsided when the Commission declined to postpone the rules for a year, despite earlier suggestions by Environment Commissioner Jessika Roswall that it could.

The about-face, he said, left small businesses scrambling and governments uncertain. Countries including Latvia, Poland, and Bulgaria now want to push enforcement back to 2027, arguing the EU’s new system is not ready.

EU considers centralised return hubs

As capitals debate how to set up “return hubs” – facilities for third-country nationals facing deportation under the bloc’s new Returns Regulation – the Commission has clarified that such hubs could be created not only by member states but also at the EU level, according to a presidency discussion paper seen by Euractiv.

Cyprus’ deputy migration minister, Nicholas Ioannides, this month called for migrant return deals to be struck “at the EU level, not bilaterally, to ensure a coordinated approach.” Governments are also weighing whether the hubs should serve as final destinations or as transit points for onward transfers.

Patriots press EPP on corporate laws

The far-right Patriots for Europe group is urging the conservative European People’s Party to back a deregulatory proposal on the EU’s corporate sustainability and due diligence laws.

“We’re asking for a public vote, and we want the EPP to support compromise number one,” lead negotiator Pascale Piera told Euractiv over coffee. The compromise would roll back the bloc’s corporate sustainability reporting and due diligence laws beyond what the EPP later agreed with liberal and centre-left lawmakers.

That deal recently collapsed in a secret ballot, and the omnibus law revision now heads for a full-house examination on 13 November. The EPP has blamed the socialists for the breakdown and demanded explanations, but the Patriots have signalled they are ready to step in.

The capitals

WARSAW 🇵🇱

Donald Tusk startled allies by suggesting that countries unable to reform within the European Convention on Human Rights might quit it. The prime minister told The Sunday Times that the court’s broad rulings were worsening Europe’s migration woes. Warsaw hastened to clarify it has no plans to withdraw, but the remark drew sharp rebukes from coalition partners who accused him of chipping away at Europe’s legal bedrock.

VILNIUS 🇱🇹

Lithuania’s government said Monday it would begin shooting down smuggling balloons drifting across its border from Belarus, calling the incidents a form of hybrid attack reminiscent of Russia’s efforts to destabilise the region. The decision follows recent closures of Vilnius airport as authorities weigh whether to seek NATO consultations amid rising tension with Minsk.

STOCKHOLM 🇸🇪

Sweden’s government on Monday unveiled plans to lower the age of criminal responsibility from 15 to 13, a drastic step aimed at curbing the surge in gang violence that has shaken the country. The proposal, backed by the far-right Sweden Democrats, would allow 13- and 14-year-olds to face prison sentences for serious crimes. Justice Minister Gunnar Strömmer said accountability must apply regardless of age, while prosecutors and rights groups warned it risks breaching child-protection norms.

PRAGUE 🇨🇿

Andrej Babiš, a billionaire populist who calls himself a “Trumpist,” was asked to form the Czech Republic’s next government after his ANO party won 34.5% of the vote but no majority. Talks with the far-right SPD and the anti-EU Motorists party are under way. President Petr Pavel urged him to uphold democratic norms. The coalition’s shape may determine whether Prague maintains its strong support for Ukraine.

HELSINKI 🇫🇮

Finland’s defence ministry blocked 11 property purchases by non-EU nationals – including Russian, Israeli, Kazakh, and Kyrgyz citizens – citing security risks along key maritime and road corridors and warning of “hybrid influence operations.” Cases included forest estates and a highway-side house; rouble prepayments raised financing red flags. The ministry urged parliament to fast-track a broader ban on all non-resident acquisitions by Russian nationals.

PARIS 🇫🇷

French lawmakers are preparing to debate a proposed tax on supplementary health insurers that could bring in around €1 billion for the state. The measure, set out in Article 7 of the draft budget, is intended to help offset the financial impact of freezing the government’s pension overhaul. Critics warn, however, that it could push mutual insurers to raise premiums for millions of households – a prospect the left-wing opposition has branded a “casus belli.”

Agenda

Contributors: Maria Simon Arboleas, Magnus Lund Nielsen, Thomas Moller-Nielsen, Elisa Braun, Jacob Wulff Wold, Inés Fernández-Pontes, Aleksandra Krzysztoszek, Natália Silenská, Charles Szumski, Jeremias Lin

Editors: Christina Zhao, Sofia Mandilara